There are many factors which will influence the Sydney property market this year, here are 3 influences we think will have the most impact.
1. The Media
Whilst there are property sales going through, the media is largely focused on the negative.
By sensationalising a bad market this compounds the feeling of uncertainty while there are still a lot of properties being sold.
The Government is doing what they can to help First Home Buyers and this is demonstrated by the significant growth in the number of loans.
According to a QBE article released October 2018:
‘Lending to first home buyers has surged an astonishing 74 per cent in Sydney in the last 12 months’.
Focusing on property falls rather than the number of new buyers getting on the property ladder, creates an extra challenge for first home buyers to make the commitment of buying their own home.
APRA (Australian Prudential Regulation Authority) brought out a new report at the end of January which is the result of their ‘responsible lending’ policy.
The report was titled: Review of APRA’s prudential measures for residential mortgage lending risks.
The report shows that the measures brought about ‘a sustained reduction in higher risk forms of lending’.
This is a good sign of the strength of the economy and the housing market.
It also found that Authorised Deposit-Taking Institutions (ADI’s) have been more prudent in analysing data on their borrowers to reduce the risk of loans not being paid.
The regulations that APRA brings in are for the future health of the economy.
So although in the short-term they may disadvantage some, overall they should help point the market in the right direction.
In a democratic society, the interests of the majority are taken into account.
If the outcomes are to give the majority a better future then we shouldn’t be scared of these changes.
The outcomes of this report along with the outcomes of the state and federal elections will provide more certainty in the housing market.
3. The Government
The Government has succeeded in bringing more affordability to the market and providing an adequate supply of housing for Sydney residents.
If you look at the NSW statistics provided by Core Logic, they reported that in:
“February 2018 there were 2,246 first home buyer housing finance commitments compared to 1,105 the previous year which is an increase of 103.3%”.
This clearly demonstrates that government incentives are enticing first home buyers back to the market.
Source URL: Core Logic
The increase in supply and higher interest rates is keeping investors at bay so homes are more affordable for first home buyers.
If the market falls another 10% homeowners can deal with this as they are looking at the long term. As long as they can afford the repayments they can cope with a downturn.
There have been around 80,000 first home buyers in the last 2 years.
If the market continues to go down, those buyers will be under some pressure. In this case, the government will have to step in to bring some balance to the market.
2019 will see both state and federal elections take place, this will bring with it more certainty. Typically the election year is quiet in terms of the property market.
With demand slower, one could fair better in negotiations for a property.
In other words, it’s still better to have action than inaction in a slow market.
With all these influences in the mix, the key ‘take away’ is that if you are prepared to buy and have risks catered for you shouldn’t back down from buying in the Sydney property market.
Audentes Fortuna Iuvat
“Fortune favours the brave…”